经济学人官方译文 | 金融市场感性之旅:投资者情绪略有好转

The markets
金融市场
Sentimental journey
感性之旅
Investors are feeling a bit more chipper
投资者情绪略有好转

经济学人官方译文 | 金融市场感性之旅:投资者情绪略有好转

IT HAS BEEN a year of mood swings in financial markets. In the spring and summer, anxious investors piled into the safety of government bonds, driving yields down sharply. Yields have recovered in recent weeks (see chart 1). This is not the only sign that investor sentiment has improved.
今年是金融市场情绪波动的一年。春夏两季,焦虑的投资者蜂拥购入安全性高的政府债券,导致收益率骤降。最近几周收益率有所回升(见图表1)。这是投资者情绪开始好转的迹象之一。

In general, safe assets have been sold in favour of cyclical ones. The Australian dollar, a cyclical currency, is up against the yen, a haven for the fearful. Something similar is happening in commodity markets, where the price of copper, a barometer of global industry, has risen against the price of gold (see chart 2).
一般来说,出售安全资产是为了投资周期性资产。周期性货币澳元对避险货币日元汇率走强。大宗商品市场也出现了类似的情况,作为全球工业晴雨表的铜价相比金价走势更强劲(见图表2)。

Equity prices in America have reached a new peak. But what is more striking is the performance of cyclical stocks relative to defensive ones. Within America’s market the prices of industrial stocks, which do well in business-cycle upswings, have risen relative to the prices of utility stocks, a safer bet in hard times. In Europe the stocks of financial firms, the fortunes of which are tied to the business cycle, have risen relative to those of firms that make consumer staples—food, beverages, household goods and so on—which are more resilient in bad times (see chart 3).
美国的股价创历史新高。但更引人注目的是周期性股票相对于防御性股票的表现。在美国金融市场,相比在经济困难时期表现更稳健的公用事业股票,在经济周期上升阶段表现良好的工业股票价格已经上扬。在欧洲,相比在经济不景气时更具韧性的消费必需品(食品、饮料、家居用品等)股票,业绩与经济周期息息相关的金融公司的股票上涨了(见图表3)。

Investors have also begun to embrace assets at the riskier end of the spectrum. A host of emerging-market currencies have gained against the dollar since the start of October (see chart 4).
投资者也开始接受风险更高的资产。自10月初以来,多种新兴市场货币兑美元的汇率上升(见图表4)。